Comentario semanal sobre los mercados de Administración de activos

Novedades del mercado para la semana que termina el
14 de marzo de 2025

Observaciones clave

• Domestic equity markets still searching for a bottom as trade policy headlines sent the S&P 500 below its 200-day moving average early in the week, with a brief reprieve from cooler inflation on Wednesday, that failed to turn the tides as the S&P 500 flirted with correction territory.
• Growth and small-cap stocks took the brunt of negative price action, with the NASDAQ declining by 3.9% on Monday alone, the worst day for the tech-heavy index since the third quarter of 2022. Sector leadership has perpetuated the preference for defensive posture with utilities leading while discretionary and communication stocks lagged.
• Benchmark U.S. Treasuries endured volatile trading conditions, in contrast to a tighter range for the dollar, with yields exhibiting a downward bias as sentiment around risk assets faded. Investment grade and high yield corporate valuations moved wider as investors sought higher premiums to take on credit risk amidst forecasts for a decelerating economy stateside.

A qué estamos atentos

• Building Permit data from the U.S. Census Bureau is expected to be released on Tuesday, with survey estimates predicting a decline by 1.6% month over month decline from last month’s 1473k print. The headline number captures how builders see the potential economic slowdown impacting demand for housing, but the trend in more reliable single-family permits is top of mind for us after declining last month for the first time since September.
• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) concludes its two-day meeting on Wednesday. The Committee is expected to leave the Fed funds rate unchanged with the lower bound remaining at 4.25% and the upper bound at 4.50%. The FOMC releases an updated Summary of Economic Projections at this meeting, otherwise known as its dot-plot, which outlines the median Committee member’s expectations surrounding the path forward for the Funds rate in the coming quarters. The updated dot-plot could prove market moving and will likely be the focus of Chair Jerome Powell’s post-meeting press conference.
• On Thursday the Philadelphia Fed is set to publish its Business Outlook Survey index with consensus expecting a reading of 12.8 down from 18.1 last month, a continued decline for the manufacturing gauge that tumbled last month after rising substantially at the end of the last year.